Over 30 million Americans had already voted by October 26, according to the University of Florida Election Lab, and every cable panel in the country is now squinting at that number like it’s a tea leaf. It isn’t one.
Here’s what the early numbers actually say. An AP comparison reported by the National Desk found Texas early turnout up about 74% from the same point in 2022, Maine up about 39% and Ohio up about 30%, while Iowa was down about 6%. Lots of people are voting early in a lot of places. That’s it. That’s the whole finding.
What it can’t tell you is who they voted for. Some states report early ballots by party registration, and Texas doesn’t. Even where they do, a registered Republican can vote for a Democrat and vice versa, and independents don’t announce themselves. The Election Lab’s own tracker says in plain English that its statistics are not actual votes, and that election officials don’t start counting until Election Day. So when a pundit says a surge in your favorite state “has to be good news for” somebody, they’re guessing and charging you for the guess.
Both sides do this, which is what makes it so tiresome. If the early numbers look good, it’s a wave. If they look bad, it’s just people voting in a different order. I’ve watched the same analyst call the same data a warning sign in one cycle and meaningless in the next, depending on whose jersey he was wearing. Confident forecasts are cheap right up until the bill arrives, which is why I keep a running list of predictions that conveniently expire after the midterms.
There’s a more useful way to read a big early turnout number, and it has nothing to do with who’s winning. More people are casting ballots at a time and in a way that suits their lives. Some mail theirs in from the kitchen table, and others stop by on a lunch break. Fewer folks are standing in a two-hour line after work on a Tuesday in November. You can like or dislike a given state’s rules, but a system where more eligible adults actually take part is working better than one where they don’t. I’d say that if the surge helped my side or hurt it.
The one thing early voting does change is the story you get to tell yourself for the next two days. Campaigns lean on it to keep volunteers motivated. Pundits lean on it because they have airtime to fill. Neither one knows more than you do, and that’s worth remembering when somebody’s graphic has a very confident arrow on it.
So here’s my advice for Tuesday. If you haven’t voted, go vote. If you have, stop refreshing the tracker. The only number that matters is the one that gets counted after the polls close, and it’ll show up whether you stare at your phone or not. It always does, eventually, and usually after somebody has already declared victory on television.
My two cents: early turnout tells you how many people showed up, not who they backed, so enjoy the hot takes the way you’d enjoy a weather forecast from a guy who’s never looked out the window.