The Thanksgiving price panic is here, and the number at the center of it is two dollars.
PwC says the average American family will spend about $90 on the big dinner this year, up from $88 last year. That’s it. A latte and a half. If a $2 bump on the biggest meal of the year is what’s breaking your budget, the turkey was never the problem.
The details are mildly interesting, though. Turkey is up nearly 8%. Cranberries are up nearly 15%, which PwC’s Ali Furman blames on a smaller harvest and higher production costs. That’s a farm problem, not a Washington problem, and I’m not going to pretend some politician can legislate more cranberries into existence. Meanwhile butter is down 10% and cream is down 6%, so your mashed potatoes got cheaper while your cranberry sauce got pricier. Somewhere an economist is smiling.
What I’d rather talk about is the spread between stores. Aldi is advertising a Thanksgiving basket for ten people, with a 16-pound turkey, sides and a pumpkin pie, for under $39. That works out to less than $4 a head. Sam’s Club’s biggest deal runs about $160 and feeds up to 16, which is $10 a person and comes with a smoked turkey and a charcuterie tray. Same holiday, wildly different bills. Those are the retailers’ own prices, so check your local store before you quote me, but the gap is the point.
This is how a market is supposed to work. Nobody had to pass a law. Stores are fighting over your Thanksgiving cart because they know you’ll compare, and PwC says more shoppers are now using AI to hunt for discounts. Good. I’ve spent plenty of words on industries that hide the real price or lobby to keep competition out, and a grocery aisle with a price tag on every item is the opposite of that. I did the same kind of math on the Halloween candy bill, and candy had actually earned my grumbling. Thanksgiving hasn’t.
There’s one honest caveat. A forecast for the average family hides a lot of families. If you’re feeding a crowd of fifteen with a big appetite for pie, your number isn’t $90, and a 15% jump on one item hurts more when every item is a stretch. Furman herself said families are managing budgets very closely this year. That’s real. It’s also a reason to shop around and grab the shelf-stable stuff early. Skip the brand-name cranberries if the store brand tastes the same to your uncle.
I’d also point out the only thing about this dinner that was ever expensive is the travel and the arguments, and neither one shows up in the PwC number.
My take: a $2 increase isn’t a crisis, it’s a Tuesday. Buy the cheap turkey, compare two stores, then save your outrage for something that deserves it.
My two cents: if the cranberries are the hill you’re dying on, buy the can and call it tradition.